Post Oscar Bliss

I must say it's a good thing I killed a half a bottle of Johnnie Walker Double Black during last night's show or else I would have felt how badly my ballot was doing. Though, in hindsight, most of the awards I missed went to films or people I wanted to win (Hugo for Effects, Cinematography, and Sound Editing; Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay; Dragon Tattoo for Editing; Undefeated for Documentary). So, of the 9 I missed, 6 of them were choices I liked. The other three? Shameful.

(The irony should be noted that in my "Calling My Shot" post back in December, I correctly picked all THREE of these categories. And now I disagree. I'm a hypocrite. Shoot me. In my defense, however, I stated I did not care who won makeup and disagreed with Artist winning costume.)

Best Makeup Winner: The Iron Lady.

This was the Academy's chance and they blew it. Let's compare the Harry Potter franchise to how other big franchises fared at the Oscars.



Lord of the Rings 17 wins.
Star Wars 7 wins.
Terminator 4 wins.
Indiana Jones 4 wins.
Alien 3 wins.
Batman 3 wins.
Toy Story 2 wins.
Shrek 1 win.
Spider-Man 1 win.
Star Trek 1 win.
James Bond 1 win.
Pirates of the Caribbean 1 win.
The Muppets 1 win.

Harry Potter ZERO

Harry Potter was 8 solid-to-great films and earned the title of the biggest movie franchise of all time. No franchise matches it in length or consistency. Compare the WORST Harry Potter movie (Chamber of Secrets) to the worst of the others on the list. Outside of LOTR and Toy Story, it's no contest. How do you not give it SOMETHING? And certainly not to Iron Lady. Meryl Streep made up to look like Margaret Thatcher? Gee. Takes a whole lot of creativity there. I mean, it's not like there aren't decades of photos to work from. Making Ralph Fiennes look like he'spart-snake. That's a little tougher. The difference is: Ralph Fiennes looks like he's part-snake in Harry Potter. Meryl Streep still looks like Meryl Streep.

Best Costume Design Winner: The Artist

It just didn't deserve it. 

Best Actress Winner: Meryl Streep

Yes. I know this is what I predicted back in December and then changed my pick. This blew up many prognosticators' ballots. Davis gave the better performance and the Oscars got this one wrong.

Here's to hoping next year gives us a stronger slate of films to choose from, but don't hold your breath.

And now, for the most popular segment of my annual Post Oscar Bliss, your nominees for Best Picture at the 85th Annual Academy Awards.

Out of last year's 10 picks, 3 actually got nominated for Best Picture (Hugo, Tree of Life, War Horse). 3 got nominated elsewhere (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, Harry Potter). And 4 didn't get squat (The Whistleblower, We Bought a Zoo, Larry Crowne, Water for Elephants). That's actually BETTER than I do most years. (self bro fist)

I will stick with choosing 10 since that's the maximum number still, although I suspect the Academy will change the rules once again. They shouldn't. As odd as it sounds to have 9 up for Best Picture, requiring a film to receive a certain number of votes makes sense.

For the 85th Academy Awards, in the category of Best Picture of the Year, your nominee will be.....


1. Lincoln - Spielberg directing Daniel Day Lewis as our greatest president. John Logan (nominated for Hugo) writing the script. Plus a HELL of cast: John Hawkes, Hal Holbrook, Jackie Earle Haley, Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon Levitt, James Spader, David Strathairn....how can this miss?

2. The Life of Pi - Previous Oscar winner Ang Lee pulls a Scorsese and directs a children's movie. The major difference here is that people have heard of this book. Comes out around Christmas. Should prove to be Oscar bait.

3. Les Miserables - The mega-popular musical finally comes to the big screen with some serious pedigree behind it. Last year's Best Director winner, Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), with a cast that includes Hugh Jackman, Amanda Seyfreid, Russell Crowe and Anne Hathaway. If they pull it off, look out!

4. Brave -  Pixar. 'nuff said.

5. The Great Gatsby - I will lovingly call this the Annual So-Crazy-It-Just-Might-Work Pick. Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge, Australia) directing Leo, Carey Mulligan and Tobey Maguire (?) in eye-popping 3-D!!! This is either going to be an instant classic or a cautionary tale. I don't see a middle ground here.

6. Gravity - The premise of this movie is simple. It's Open Water in space. Sandra Bullock and George Clooney are on a space walk when their shuttle gets destroyed and they're left floating in space. And if it were written and directed by ANYONE else, I'd have written it off. But this is Alfonso Cuaron's follow-up to the utterly brilliant Children of Men, which was his follow-up to Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (considered by many to be the best of the franchise), which followed-up Y Tu Mama Tambien. The dude is on a roll.

7. Django Unchained - Tarantino. Revenge flick. Ex-slave kills bad white people. Weinstein Company. 'nuff said.

8. Token Weinstein Company Nomination - While Django Unchained will be around, the Weinstein Company will be hedging their bets by pushing other, more audience friendly fare on Oscar voters. After winning Best Picture two years in a row (King's Speech, The Artist) over films considered superior, you know they will want to keep the streak alive. The question is: which films on their slate will be finished by then. Not all of these, however, are expected to be released this year. So, for the sake of fairness, if more than one gets a nomination, I'll only take credit for one. You've got:

1. The Silver Linings Playbook - director David O. Russell (The Fighter) and starring Jennifer    Lawrence and Robert De Niro.
2. Lay the Favorite - Director Stephen Frears (The Grifters, The Queen) starring Bruce Willis and Catherine Zeta Jones.
3. The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson's anti-Scientology movie starring Philip Seymour Hoffman.
4. Wettest County - A period piece starring Gary Oldman, Jessica Chastain and Shia LeBouf. From the director of The Road.
5. Cogan's Trade - Brad Pitt, Richard Jenkins and Ray Liotta in a mob movie directed by Andrew Dominik (The Assassination of Jesse James....)

9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 4th film in a franchise that has pulled Best Picture nominations (and 1 win) for the previous 3 films. I'd be a moron not to have this on the list somewhere. But my gut says it will not live up to expectations.

10. World War Z - A zombie movie? For Best Picture? That's been the talk ever since the once-thought-unfilmable book got a script. Max Brooks, the author of the book, made the prediction when he first read it. Even he didn't think a good movie could be made. Marc Forster (Monsters Ball, Finding Neverland) directing and Brad Pitt starring? This is obviously not your father's zombie movie.

Until next year....

The Final Predictions

Cinematography: Tree of Life
Art Direction: Hugo
Costume Design: W.E.
Makeup: Harry Potter
Foreign Language: A Separation
Film Editing: The Artist
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Sound Editing: War Horse
Sound Mixing: Hugo
Documentary: Pina
Animated: Rango
Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Score: The Artist
Song: Man or Muppet
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazavanicius, The Artist
Actor: Jean Dujardin
Actress: Viola Davis
Picture: The Artist

Should the Oscars Matter?

Those who follow AwardsDaily.com were probably amused at today's discussion of whether or not the Oscars matter. Both sides had very valid points. But the question that should be asked is whether or not the Oscars SHOULD matter.

In a perfect world, the Oscars would be the ultimate, undisputed statement of artistic merit in film. Is it? No. Has it ever been that? No. So then, one must ask, "What ARE the Oscars?" Quite simply, it's a group that comprises a small percentage of the film community at large who vote every year to recognize a film or some aspect of a film. Are the people who vote on the Oscars the be all, end all opinion of film? No. They are people who just work in the industry who, at some point, received an invitation to have a say in the awards process. So why would THAT mean anything?

Let's use a different industry. Education. Every year, someone is named "Teacher of the Year." Is it an honor? Absolutely. Are they REALLY the best teacher in the ENTIRE country? Who knows? You don't know. I don't know. And no one who votes on the process knows either. There are probably thousands of teachers who work equally hard, produce equal or better results and never receive one bit of consideration. But to actually find out if the winner is actually the "best", it would be an unbelievably daunting task and, even then, it would come down to a person's or group of people's opinion that STILL would not likely select THE ultimate, undisputed Teacher of the Year.

So, if they aren't going to go through the trouble of getting it exactly right, why bother?

Because it's nice to recognize people who are as important to our society as teachers.

The Oscars are there to try and do the same thing with film.

The Oscars face a similar challenge. Hundreds of movies are released in the U.S. every year. Do the Academy voters see EVERY SINGLE film that's released? Hell no. Not even close. If any of them saw half, I'd die of shock. These people have jobs, after all. Not only do they have to make films, spending 15 hour days on a movie set, but then they have to go around promoting them for weeks or even months on end. Go to this or that gala charity event. Do the late night talk shows. The morning news shows.

I imagine awards season must get especially tiring. The People's Choice Awards, the Critics' Choice Awards, the SAG Awards, the Golden Globes, the Independent Spirit Awards, and, finally, the Oscars. And those are just the ones they show on TV in America!!! Don't forget. Many countries also have their own version of the Oscars. They go to those too. Now throw in all the film festivals all over the world, guild awards, critics banquets, etc. It's insane.

But it does lead me to my next point. The Oscars are just ONE of many different awards for film. From an artistic perspective only, does an Oscar for Best Picture mean anything different than any other award? And I mean leaving out the obvious bump in box office or DVD sales and that winning an Oscar gets you on Yahoo's front page? Strictly from an artistic standpoint. No, it doesn't. The Oscars are just the best known version of the same thing as all of the other groups that make some sort of recognition of merit. When it comes right down to it, the Oscars aren't any more or less an indication of what is good art than a Battle of the Bands at a local bar.

So SHOULD the Oscars mean something? Yes. To a select group of people. The nominees, the winners, anyone else who benefits from a nomination or a win. And to the people who LIKE the films the Academy selects. To the rest of us? Not really.

What it boils down to is that the Oscars are like anyone else who makes judgments on films. For example, I find that my taste in films is a mix of Roger Ebert and Owen Gleiberman of Entertainment Weekly. If they both like a film, the overwhelming odds are that I will like it too. Conversely, if Rene Rodriguez of the Miami Herald hates a film, I'll be first in line to see it. If the Oscars aren't recognizing the movies you think should be recognized, then pay closer attention to the group that does. If you thought The Descendants was the best film of the year and the Academy is stupid for (likely) picking The Artist? Guess what? The Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics Association, Florida Film Critics Circle Awards, the Hawaii International Film Festival, the Kansas City Film Critics, the L.A. Film Critics, the Satellite Awards, and the Southeastern Film Critics ALL agree with you. Next year, maybe pay closer attention to those groups because they seem to like the films you do. And cheer when the movie you loved wins. Then tell all of your friends, "See? The movie I loved was loved by these people too! Go see this movie I loved! Ignore the Academy. They're stupid."

On a side note: There are things I think the Academy can do to make the whole thing feel more legit. They just won't do it. The first step would be to be first. Make it so that the Oscar voters aren't influenced by who's winning in the other groups. Granted, after the Oscars, people tend to stop caring who wins what, but it could produce a more "legit" winner. A film like The Artist probably wouldn't have gotten noticed if FIFTEEN different critics groups, film festivals and guild awards hadn't made a point of saying it's the best. Second, get rid of the nominations. Imagine watching on Oscar night and know that Best Picture could be any one of dozens of films. Or to make it REALLY exciting. Announce the nominations ON Oscar night and give all of the voters in the audience an iPad to cast their vote right then and there. Granted, turning the Academy Awards into a reality show doesn't sound like a more legit option, but the current process is about as exciting as a presidential election. The way it is now, you HOPE it might be an exciting finish (a la The Social Network over The King's Speech), but deep down, you know it won't.

Reloading the Pistol.... (With Results 1/24/12)

I've been chatting with many of the Oscar following friends this season and there's one thing everyone seems to agree on: This year is just plain NUTS! Barely a month ago, I posted my annual "Calling My Shot" entry and I can't think of another year where some categories seemed like mortal locks and in such a short period of time, the pendulum snapped, rolled down a hill and crushed a Kardashian. (Okay, that last part is wishful thinking).

In the last week, I sat and watched the Critics' Choice Awards and the Golden Globes and got category after category wrong. Films like Tree of Life have fallen so far off the radar that it will take the Hubble Telescope to see where it went. Who the nominees will be has been a LOT easier to predict than who will finally win. But picking winners? It's been a nightmare this year. How often do you look at the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama and think "Not a chance!"? Almost never.

But, I will give it my best shot. Here are your nominees:

BEST PICTURE: (8/9 Correct)
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris (if there's 6)
Bridesmaids (if there's 7) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
War Horse (if there's 8)
Tree of Life (if there's 9)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (if there's 10)

Prediction: The Artist. Of the Big 8 categories, this one has turned into the easiest. If you remember when I "called my shot", I went with The Help, because nothing else seemed to jump out at me at the time. Sure, The Artist had won a pre-award or two, but I really didn't think the momentum would continue the way it has. Leave it to the Weinsteins to keep it up.

BEST DIRECTOR: (4/5 Correct)

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo


Prediction: Martin Scorsese, Hugo. I may be a little prejudiced as this is my favorite film of 2011 so far, but I think there's reason to think this will happen. Scorsese doesn't have too many movies still left in him and you just can't let one of his LEAST memorable films, The Departed, be his only win. The only likely spoiler would be Hanazavicius.


BEST ACTOR: (3/5 Correct)


George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Ryan Gosling, Drive Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball


Prediction: Brad Pitt, Moneyball. But I'm REALLY not sold on this right now. Just a few months ago, I was positive this was Gosling's category to lose and now, he may not even get nominated. Clooney and Dujardin won at the Golden Globes, but my gut tells me that Pitt might still prevail, despite having the less showy part, for two reasons: 1. He's never won despite after nearly 2 decades in the limelight. 2. He may hold true to his promise that he's retiring very soon and this might be the Academy's only shot at giving one of its more diverse actors an award. If not here, their last chance looks like World War Z next year.


BEST ACTRESS: (5/5 Correct)

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep,The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn   

Prediction: Viola Davis, The Help. I was SURE this was Streep's year to return to the winner's circle. Despite the GG win, I just don't see it and that's fine. Davis knocked it out of the park in The Help. It's just funny that Streep will now have lost as many times as any other actor has even been nominated. This may also be the category with the most shocking spoiler: Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, just because she has never won either and she's been at it a lot longer than Pitt. Although, there may already be too many sentimental choices this year for it to happen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: (4/5 Correct)

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners


Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners. THIS is what I'm talking about. Brooks seemed like the winner just a few weeks ago. Then, I guess, people started catching Beginners on screeners. It's a good performance by Plummer. It's a good film as a whole. I just remember watching it and thinking, "It's just not feeling Oscar-worthy" to me. I guess we've been spoiled the past couple years by some truly amazing supporting performances, Christian Bale in The Fighter, Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds, Heath Ledger in Dark Knight, Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men. Those were just lights-out, great performances. Plummer's isn't.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (4/5 Correct)


Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs


Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help. Again, this is what I was talking about before. Chastain in, count 'em, FIVE solid-to-great performances this year seemed like such a shoo-in. And in The Help, she was such a BITCH! But I think the Academy will go with the less showy, but more solid performance of Octavia Spencer.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: (4/5 Correct)


50/50 Margin Call
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation


Prediction: Midnight in Paris. My #3 movie of 2011. If this one had come out in November instead of spring, I think this one would have been more of a contender for Best Picture. This will be its only win. The only possibility for an upset would be Bridesmaids, but I just don't see it.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: (4/5 Correct)


The Descendants
The Help Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo
Ides of March
Moneyball


Prediction: Moneyball. Please? I'm telling you right now, this is going to be one of my worst years for picking the winners. The Ides of March (STILL hate that name. What was wrong with Farragut North? Doesn't hurt the box office in the playhouses that show it) or whatever gets that slot is about the only nominee I can rule out. Right now, The Descendants is picking up steam and could wind up taking this.


BEST FILM EDITING: (3/5 Correct)


The Artist
Drive The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse Moneyball


Prediction: Hugo. One of the MANY well done aspects of this movie. Dragon Tattoo should contend. Everything else is just there to fill slots. As a reminder, this is the category to watch to eliminate Best Picture contenders. No nom here, no trophy there. 


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: (5/5 Correct)


The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tree of Life
War Horse


Prediction: Tree of Life. This is one of those film/category matches that you see every few years. Like Terminator 2 and Visual Effects or Raiders of the Lost Ark and Editing. Just an aspect of the film that is so overwhelmingly well done that to NOT award it would show how Joe Average Academy voter doesn't know squat outside of their own job in film.


BEST ART DIRECTION: (5/5 correct)


The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse


Prediction: Hugo. It damn well better. That's all I'm saying.


BEST SOUND MIXING: (2/5 Correct)


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes Moneyball
Super 8 Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse


Prediction: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Come on! They have to give SOMETHING to this series. Here's their chance.


BEST SOUND EDITING: (3/5 Correct)


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Drive
Hugo
Super 8 Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse


Prediction: War Horse. Never, EVER, bet against the movie that has the sound of horse hooves. Although movies with trains do tend to win as well and three of these have them, it doesn't trump the sound of horses, which easily impresses voters.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN: (2/5 correct)


Albert Nobbs Anonymous
The Artist
The Help Jane Eyre
Hugo
J. Edgar W.E.


Prediction: The Artist. This IS one of those categories that the voters don't come close to grasping. Here, they typically vote for most costumes, not best. Honestly, you know what movie had great costumes that spoke VOLUMES about the characters? Bridesmaids. Won't even get considered. They fail this category year after year.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: (4/5 Correct)


The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo
War Horse


Prediction: The Artist. It's hard to argue against a movie that is ALL score. The score for Dragon Tattoo though is pretty intense. If they hadn't just won last year, this might be a closer race. I don't know if Hanna is in the running, but the Chemical Brothers work on that movie was pretty awesome as well.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: (4/5 Correct)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Tree of Life Real Steel

Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The major difference between this film and most every other film this year was that the visual effects were also a performance and not just window dressing or explosions.

BEST MAKEUP: (3/3 Correct, but when you pick too many to begin with....)

Albert Nobbs
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady

Prediction: The Iron Lady. This category always throws me. For one, Whether there's 3 or 5 nominees seems to happen randomly. And second, unless some film is pulling a Titanic/Return of the King type sweep, I never guess this one correctly. Until last year, I suppose. And so, I will follow last year's method of picking and choose the one I didn't seriously think would win.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: (2/5 Correct, thought I'd read there were only 3 nominees)


The Adventures of Tintin Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita


Prediction: Rango. This category was decided nearly a year ago. With the lack of a Pixar film this year (Cars 2 did not happen in my world), the race was presumably wide open. But the Happy Feet and Kung Fu Panda sequels left something to be desired, although I would argue that the originals of both were highly overrated. But Rango set the bar very high, very early on in 2011 and no other entry came even close.

I'm leaving out, as usual, other categories like the short subjects, documentary, foreign film, and song, simply because, in the case of the first three, I don't see enough of them, and with song, I quite simply don't care since the songs most often get judged on their own merits and not how they affect the film itself.

Calling My Shot

I had been hearing gripes this year about how tough predicting the Oscars has been because there's nothing even resembling a clear frontrunner. I just chalked it up to the usual griping from people who don't happen to like the frontrunner and are simply in denial.

Then I started planning this column in my head. 

They're right. 

I am speaking honestly when I say that a few paragraphs below this sentence is my prediction for what will win Best Picture and as I am typing this sentence, I have no idea what that movie is going to be. In fact, there's very few categories at all that have a clear cut favorite. The Golden Globe nominations come out this week, but in wide open years like this one, they tend not to indicate where the Academy will go. In fact, I would wager that the Academy voters aren't totally sure yet who they'll vote for. 

And now, I'm just droning on because I'm hoping I'll come across some movie I've forgotten that will make me say, "Oh yeah! That's the one that will win." It's not happening. So here it goes. I got 10 right last year. I doubt I'll do that well this year.

Best Picture: 

Ummm...let me get back to this one. 

Director: Terrence Malick, Tree of Life

I have a feeling this will be one of several instances of people being awarded for their careers over the job they did on the movie. This will be Malick's third nomination over a career that's spanned four decades and yet, has only seen 5 movies. Still, Tree of Life is a "director's movie" if there ever was one. It doesn't deserve Best Picture, but this is an award it does.

Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball

I think this category will be a 3-way street fight among Pitt, Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Ryan Gosling (Drive). Gosling would have been a shoo-in had The Ides of March been better received. But he was good in 3 movies this year. Fassbender has been getting rave reviews for Shame, but it's perhaps TOO daring. Similar to Gosling, Fassbender would have been a strong favorite had A Dangerous Method gotten better notices. So, that leaves us with Brad Pitt, who I'm sure many feel is overdue for an Oscar anyway and was nomination-worthy in two films this year. George Clooney will also be nominated for The Descendants, but he's won recently and given Pitt's rumored, impending retirement, I think they'll want to award him now rather than risk missing the chance later.

Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Meryl Streep has LOST more times than any person, except Katherine Hepburn, has been nominated. If she loses here, than she will have lost more times than anyone has been nominated. Period. That's a ridiculous statistic. And it's been almost 20 years since she last won. Come on. Let's throw the woman a bone to give her a reason to keep showing up year after year. 

Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks, Drive

Among the 8 major categories, the supporting acting categories are the closest to being a lock. Brooks is well-liked in this industry for decades. He's playing against type. He's been nominated in this category before. There's a lot of things going for him. He didn't get a nomination for SAG awards, but I think it will still happen.

Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, Tree of Life

She is simply having one of the single greatest years of any actor in movie history. In any year, she could win for "Tree of Life". The funny thing is that she might get nominated for another movie. She may also win for "The Help". The only thing that might stop her is marrying a George Clooney or Ryan Gosling between now and then.

Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Unless there's a sweep by the "The Artist", I don't see Woody losing here. This was a prediction I made when the movie came out and I'm sticking to it.

Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball
This category could go a lot of ways. If the writers' branch embraces films like "War Horse", "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", or "Hugo". Based on how things look this second, I'm sticking with Sorkin.

Editing: War Horse
Just as a general rule, the Academy should really give Michael Kahn an Oscar at least once a decade. He's a three-time winner, all for Spielberg movies involving people fighting against Germans. How can he lose?

Cinematography: Tree of Life
"Tree of Life" is more of a painting than a film. This will be a deserving win.

Art Direction: Hugo
I think there's a strong possibility that "Hugo" can be the winner in a lot of the categories above. Momentum changes a lot during the Oscar race. But where things stand now, I think this is the biggest award it will take. When the stories come out about the kind of financial disaster this film is (including marketing costs, it will lose close to $250 million), a lot of people will shy away from this one.

Costume Design: The Artist
Sure looks like there's a lot of costumes in this movie. And the Academy tends to vote volume over substance. More thought about costumes goes into a movie like The Descendants than films like The Artist, J. Edgar, or A Dangerous Method (all likely nominees). But they'll pick one of the latter because, well, look! There's so many costumes!

Sound Mixing: Hugo 
Just taking a stab in the dark here.

Sound Editing: War Horse
Same here.

Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
I can't imagine any film this year more deserving. And the Academy loves giving it to CGI monkeys. 

Makeup: The Iron Lady
I'd rather see a stunts category than the almost annually flip of the coin this category is.

Song: The Muppets, "Man or Muppet"
When in doubt, go with the song people probably heard latest in the year.

Score:  The Artist
Since no silent film has won in over 80 years, it's hard to say there's a standard to award a movie that's ALL score. I just think it's a safe bet.

Animated Feature: Rango
It's been a while since there's been such a disappointing year for animated films. Particularly after a year that saw "Toy Story 3", "How to Train Your Dragon", "Despicable Me", "The Illusionist", etc. This year was so weak, I think "Winnie the Pooh" will contend. Even mediocre films like "Rio" and "Arthur Christmas" has a shot at nominations. Thankfully, even in a strong year, the brilliant "Rango" would probably win.

Documentary Feature: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
It's the only one I've seen this year. So let's go with that.

The Golden Globe nominations come out tomorrow, so I'm sure several of these choices will be proven destined to be wrong within 24 hours, but that's the fun, isn't it?

Oh yeah. I still need to pick Best Picture, don't I?

Best Picture: The Help

How's THAT for guts?

The Oscar Race: Lap 2

The National Board of Review:

Yes. The critics group to which no actual critics belong. Who are these people? Why do the Oscar-obsessed care? Because they are as accurate an indicator of what the Oscars will look like as the Golden Globes. Since 2000, every single one of the Best Pictures has at least gone on to be nominated at the Oscars. Lately, they've tended to not choose the same Best Picture as the Academy, but they at least got a nominee correct.

Here are their choices:

Best Film: Hugo

The rest of their Top 10:
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants 
Original Screenplay: 50/50
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Foreign Film: A Separation


So, a VERY different group of picks than we saw with the New York Film Critics. In fact, the only category that matched is Foreign Film. I wasn't familiar with A Separation, but now I'm intrigued. Not just because of the picks, but what I've been reading about it. Many people calling it the best film they've ever seen! I always find that to be a stretch, but it's more rare than you'd think to hear people say that. 


Beyond that, it was a very strong showing for Hugo, obviously. It really needs it too. Hugo is on its way to becoming a box office disaster of epic proportions. If it ONLY loses $100 million, the studio will be lucky. Winning these pre-awards should help in its advertising.


Also a strong showing for The Descendants, which many had expected to do much better with the NYFCC, but didn't win a single prize. There are some notable films missing from that Top 10 list. The Help was expected to be there. Moneyball is missing as well. Also, Midnight in Paris, which was not only considered a shoo-in for these kind of awards, but is being looked at as a serious contender for Best Picture.


A small break in the awards for the next week or so. Nothing until December 11, when the Boston and Los Angeles Film Critics announce their awards. Boston, in particular, is a good Oscar predictor, having voted for the same Best Picture as the Academy 4 of the last 5 years. The lone exception was that last year they chose The Social Network. The Los Angeles Critics usually choose an eventual nominee, but their choice rarely wins Best Picture.

Studios, Start Your Engines!

With all the rules changes with the Oscars, it seems fitting that Oscar season would start completely differently this year. Traditionally speaking, it has always started with the announcements of the National Board of Review, which always seemed strange because A. no one in Hollywood (or anywhere) seems to have a clue who these people are and B. they always managed to pick, at the very least, a Best Picture nomineee, if not the Best Picture winner.

That all changed this year with the New York Film Critics' Circle moving their big day to be first. It's a good move, actually. As mentioned above, no one has a CLUE who the National Board of Review is. It's actually a running joke. At least with the NYFCC, we know who the voters are and probably read/watch their work. One other interesting factoid: The NYFCC live tweeted their awards. This was kind of cool. It's not like the Oscars where voters get ballots in the mail, fill them out, send them back, get new ballots after the nominations, fill THOSE out, send THOSE back in, and PriceWaterhouseCooper counts the votes and the winners are known ahead of time. These critics groups all meet in a room and hash out the winners. There have been years where fights broke out and no winner was declared until the 7th or 8th vote. So, it was interesting to follow the thing on Twitter today as some winners were announced seemingly back to back, while other categories (Best Actor and Best Director especially) seemed to take a while. I'll have to go back and look, but I think Best Actor took close to 40 minutes, while most categories took about 10. Here are the results:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball/Tree of Life
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, Tree of Life/The Help/Take Shelter
Best Screenplay: Moneyball
Best Cinematography: Tree of Life
Best Foreign Film: A Separation
Best Nonfiction Film: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Best First Feature: Margin Call

So, some interesting, although not all that surprising, choices. The Best Picture win for The Artist could come back and bite it in the ass. It seems like a trend recently that the first movie to start collecting awards petered out by the time to Oscar voters started filling out their ballots. But, it is the Weinstein Brothers doing the pushing for it and they somehow managed to get The King's Speech past The Social Network juggernaut last year. Maybe they've found a way to keep their films winning.

Still, if the list above turned out to match the Oscar winners, it wouldn't be a shock. I like The Artist's chances. For both Picture and Director. Brad Pitt? Strong possibility. He's one of those "long overdue" actors and his main competition will likely be George Clooney (who has already won) and Ryan Gosling (who suffers from the Kate Winslet curse of he's "so good, he'll win plenty in the future").

Meryl Streep has lost at the Oscars 14 times! Think about that. She's LOST 14 times. Do you know how many actors have even been NOMINATED 14 times? 1. Katherine Hepburn. And she won 4 times. Other factors in Streep's favor? She hasn't won since Sophie's Choice! That was 30 years ago!!! You want to talk about LONG overdue. She was 32 years old when she won. She's been nominated 12 times SINCE she last won. Now she's almost retirement age. Not to mention that the early reviews say she turns in the kind of mind-blowing performance that made Helen Mirren a lock in The Queen a few years back.

I love the idea of Albert Brooks winning. I don't think it will happen. But I love that he's even contending. For one, it's not his normal type of role. Albert Brooks is kinda like Woody Allen as far as type-casting. That someone took a chance and cast this smart-ass, nerdy persona as the bad ass mob boss is pure guts. And it worked. There's no reason why he couldn't win. I just don't think he will.

It's funny. This was supposed to be Jessica Chastain's year. It was thought that she was going to be the biggest star on the planet after this year. She's in SEVEN movies this year. Co-starring with huge box office stars and Oscar winners. And in such a wide range of roles too. And that's part of the problem. People might not realize that it was her in Tree of Life, The Help, Take Shelter, plus The Debt, Coriolanus, Wilde Salome or The Texas Killing Fields. OR, it might be that, with exception to The Help, everyone skipped on seeing those films. That said, it's going to be interesting to see how or if she gets nominated. Let's focus on the first four I listed. Tree of Life: She was terrific as the strong, loving mom who flies in the face of Brad Pitt's tyrannical dad. I haven't seen The Help, but I hear she plays a bitch. Take Shelter, she plays the suffering wife of a man who is having apocalyptic visions. The Debt: She plays a cold-blooded assassin. But if that weren't enough, she has to play the younger version of the same character Helen Mirren is playing. In other words, she has to be as good as one of the most respected thespians on the whole freaking planet! And she apparently pulled it off. Here's where it gets tough: Which movie do you nominate her for? I say rule out The Help, because there's plenty of other support there. But the other three? Good luck.

I found Moneyball to be an interesting choice. Interesting because it could very well win Adapted Screenplay, but also because it is RARE for writers to repeat at the Oscars. I know a lot of Oscar trivia and I'm thinking you probably have to go back to the late 1940s-early 1950s when Joseph L. Mankiewicz won in consecutive years (I think). Writers often don't win twice, period. Much less back-to-back. But, if there is a screenwriter out there who deserves it. It's Aaron Sorkin.

The National Board of Review announces their winners on Thursday. Until then....