Tuesday, September 20, 2011

What Will Be #500? UPDATE

UPDATE Bad Teacher crossed the $100 million threshold 99 days after opening in theaters. Next film to make $100 million will be #500.

My rare foray into box office prognostication had some hits and misses. Now that we are at 498 films breaking the $100 million barrier, I thought I'd break down how I did on my predictions.

Since I posted my predix, 11 movies broke that barrier. X-Men: First Class broke $100 million the day of the post, as expected. Proudly, I did correctly predict that, at this time, mid-September, we would be 2 movies away from 500. But how close was I to predicting WHICH 9 movies would make $100+? Let's see:

Prediction #1: Super 8. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $126,869,833.

Prediction #2: Green Lantern. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $116,551,122.

Prediction #3: Cars 2. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $189,679,088.

Prediction #4: Transformers: Dark of the Moon. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $351,331,987.

Prediction #5: Zookeeper. WRONG!
Total Gross: $79,234,201. NOTE: The Jason Bateman film Horrible Bosses was one I felt would do Zookeeper-type numbers and wound up making over $115 million. So technically, I missed on 2 movies that weekend.

Prediction #6: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $378,180,621.

Prediction #7: Captain America. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $174,301,520.

Prediction #8: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. CORRECT!
Total Gross: $171,651,537.

Prediction #9: Apollo 18. WRONG!
Total Gross: $16,885,842.

I was also wrong the other way on The Help, which wasn't on anyone's radar and went on to gross almost $150 million.

One other side note: When I was going over what was still to come out this summer, somehow, I skipped over the last weekend in July, otherwise, I certainly would have put Cowboys & Aliens on the list and been wrong there too. It JUST missed, having grossed $98.8 million.

Predictions still pending:

Prediction #10: Paranormal Activity 3 or Real Steel.
At this point, I really don't think either will do it. I know a lot of people were disappointed by Paranormal Activity 2, myself included. Real Steel is basically a film version of Rock 'em, Sock 'em Robots. It might just be so stupid that it does well. Like Transformers.

Prediction #11: Puss 'n Boots
I still stand by this one.

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